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Analysis

Comments on Major Amin's Analysis of Waziristan [Hamid Hussain 3/25/2008]
Declassified Gulf II Planning Documents

Starved for real military/strategic news? Visit Mathew Wilson's www.1913intel.com

For general news about US deployments/operations, visit www.globalsecurity.org

For solid reporting from Iraq from the US military's view, read Bill Roggio at www.longwarjournal.com

0230 GMT July 4, 2008

Peshawar/NWFP We are completely confused as to what's going on with the Pakistani "offensive" in the Khyber Agency/Peshawar. No one seems to be doing any fighting whatsoever, on either side. The security forces are spreading out; the insurgents are assuring everyone they will not fight their brothers in the security forces, and the security forces seem to be cutting side deals - or are these official deals - with the insurgents along the lines of: "Lay low for now until the pressure is off". The security forces are blowing up houses of insurgent leaders, except no one is at home when this happens, the insurgents having voluntarily - and as they emphasize - temporarily, vacated their usual haunts.
This time we are disinclined to blame ourselves for being confused, because it seems everyone else is also confused except Mr. Robert Novak of the Washington Post. He is an investigative syndicated columnists and seems to think Pakistan has put under way a major offensive against Pakistani militants.
Hunt Oil And Mr. Bush Before anyone writes to us and says "you have been saying Mr. Bush did not go to war in Iraq for oil, how do you explain the special deal his good buddy the oilman Hunt has cut with the Kurdish Government?"
If someone feels comfortable asserting that Mr. Bush went to war to give his friend access to Kurdish oil, they are welcome to believe what they want. Kurdish oil is the riskiest play in Iraq. The only way it can pay off is if Iraq becomes three independent countries and if Turkey doesn't start a war with Kurdistan. The US is working mightily to keep Iraq united, so it looks like that by betting US policy will fail, Mr. Hunt of Hunt Oil is simply putting some money into a long shot because he doesn't have the resources to compete for Iraq oil contracts. That one political friend of the President is making a contrarian bet doesn't prove or mean anything, one way or the other.
If Mr. Hunt has violated some aspect of US law by dealing with the Kurds, then that is between him and the US courts.
The US And Batteries Business week of June 30, 2008 tells us a Boston businessperson wanted to make new and advanced computer notebook batteries in the US. So she got one offer from an American company that incidentally wanted several million dollars upfront. So she took off for China, which was not her first choice. In China there are 200 major battery makers and she soon got what she wanted.
Now, the point of this story is not to criticize American companies because this company was acting rationally. It would take a big risk in investing in the production of the battery because any minute China could offer better terms and then it would be wiped out.
The point is to note - with considerable amazement - that the US appears to have tolerated with great enthusiasm a complete gutting of its capacity to make something as basic as batteries.
Elsewhere the story notes that because of the relentless fall of the dollar against the yuan and steadily increasing shipping costs, America is again become competitive in nitty gritty industrial stuff such as industrial forgings and a host of other products. But Business Week says it will take 10 years for manufacturing jobs to come back to America because the country is so devastated in manufacturing that people are willing only to take baby steps in reinvesting in their own country. Apparently in the last 10 years, the US also gutted its foundries. Neither the workers nor the factories nor the money is available any more.
The other day there was wild excitement in Dan River, Virginia which used to be sort of America's textile manufacturing capital. Why? Because after the steady loss of tens of thousands of jobs over the last 30 years, a process that essentially wiped out Dan River and adjacent communities, IKEA of Sweden is putting up a furniture plant in Dan River that will employ - can you stand the thrill? - ~750 jobs. That may be less than 1% of what the textile factories employed 30 years ago - when the number of workers was ~35% less than what it was in the late 1960s and early 1970s - these are back-of-envelope calculations, we haven't had time to research the details.
Why is IKEA coming to the US? Because shipping costs have been steadily increasing and the US dollar has been falling and American workers are happy to work for starting wages of $8/hour whereas in Western Europe if you offered their workers $8 to answer a call of nature, they'd probably refuse - too much effort to go and take a leak if $8 is what're you're going to get.
In other words, welcome to the Second World. You can't call America First World when a company finds it cheaper to manufacture in America those cute end tables IKEA sells for $5.
Happy 4th, folks. Don't forget to go to church and pray that the children of the Baby Boomers do a better job of running this country than their parents. Otherwise in 30 years we'll be a Third World country. And pardon us if we feel a tad grouchy on America's 232nd birthday.

0230 GMT July 3, 2008

Is This What China Wants?

By defeating India in 1962, China established its claim lines on the Sino-Indian border as the reality. For 35 years, India adopted a strong defensive posture on the border, with no intent of attacking China to recover lost territory, or even to do more than simply throw back a Chinese offensive should that take place. In the 1990s India agreed to substantially reduce forces on its side of the border to show it considered a peaceful solution to the border issue the only way to go.
China's reaction to the winning hand it held for 35 years and the even bigger hand it managed by making complete idiots of the Indians in the 1990s - in fairness it takes little to make complete idiots of the Indians was - you've guessed it: to push the Indians harder than it has done before, with hundreds of intrusions and a massive infrastructure buildup in Tibet's remote regions including roads in areas India has controlled since before the coming of the British Raj.
We are being neither cynical, bitter, or angry when we make the above comments. China sees itself as the eventual world superpower, this attitude is written into Chinese genes, and the country cannot help itself in taking every opportunity to push its neighbors as much as it can. Peaceful coexistence to the Chinese means accepting China as the suzerain, and that mans everyone else must accept vassal status. What China is doing is absolutely natural.
But is it the right way to advance China's interests?
Consider the following. India has already raised two mountain divisions in 2008, the very first divisions it has raised since 1984. One is clearly a strike reserve against China, the other, while it has a role against Pakistan, has been created very much with China in mind. It is a strike reserve primarily for Ladakh.
Now Mandeep Singh Bajwa tells us that the next step in a decade-long buildup against China is being prepared.
A third new division, specifically for offensive operations in Ladakh, will be raised. Mr. Bajwa naturally cannot give any details as the information is classified. India at this time has 7 regular army battalions and perhaps 2 Scouts battalions oriented to covering the Ladakh border. The existing division is to get a third brigade, additional corps artillery is to be inducted; armored battlegroups - withdrawn under the reduction agreements with China - are to be reinducted; three long-closed airfields have been reactivated, and several Scouts battalions of specialized high mountain troops for offensive operations are to be added.
In other words, not only does Indian Northern Command now have a mountain strike division that is not committed to the Pakistan front, Indian forces in Ladakh are to more than double. As important, nowhere in this buildup is the word "defense" mentioned.
Ladakh has four sectors. One faces Pakistan, and it already has five brigades. Ladakh has three sectors. Even at it the height of its 1960s buildup against China, India's offensive component was a single, limited division attack in the southern sector, intended purely to throw off a Chinese offensive.
But now India is building the capability to launch three simultaneous offensives, one of a brigade in the north, very high and very rugged terrain, a brigade in the center, and a full division in the south.
BUT please consider this. These five brigades are the first wave of the offensive. Behind them will be five other brigades, and behind these will be at least that many more drawn partly from reserves committed primarily to Pakistan front and only secondarily to the China front.
In other words, where India before the buildup essentially had 4-5 brigades for Ladakh, it will soon have 15+, or a tripling of strength. and again, we need to emphasize, no one at Army HQ is talking about defense. These forces are being planned and will train for a straight, heavy-duty, combined air-ground offensive aimed at regaining Ladakh, and completely disrupting China's links with Sinkiang and Central Tibet.
China meanwhile has been steadily reducing its formation and upgrading them. But you see, the upgraded Chinese formations actually still have less capability than the Indians formations of today, unit for unit, because the Indians have steadily continued upgrading their army in general. And a new round of modernization/reequipment is in the works so that the capability gap will be even larger, unit for unit. India is going for mass AND quality, whereas China is going for the discredited American doctrine of quality without mass.
You see, India now has a trillion dollar economy and it spends just a bit over 2% of it on defense. The economy is expected to grow by 50% in the next five years - that is the reduced target given the recent distortions caused by oil and food. And India has decided it needs to going back to spending 4% of GDP on defense - all thanks to China. India's defense budget looks set to triple in the period 2007-2012 - and the irony of it, people are beating up China for its defense expenditure, which - believe it or not - is actually about China says. In other words, China is NOT lying about its expenditures, sorry to disappoint everyone.
So, back to our original question. Does China really think the Indian buildup is in its interest. India did not want to undertake the buildup, it wanted to normalize relations and to demilitarize the border, and it agreed to the latter. So what exactly has China gained by not keeping its end of the deal?
Tomorrow we will talk about the political calculations China is making in the face of this massive Indian buildup, which has just begun, by the way. There are many more divisions on the way. And we will show that those political calculations, while entirely appropriate for the past, are now hopelessly outmoded.

News

Colombian Military Operation Rescues Betancourt, 14 Other Hostages In a case of life imitating art, the Colombian Army infiltrated FARC and obtained the custody of 15 hostages: former senator Ingrid Betancourt who ran for president before her 2002 kidnapping, three American military contractors held since 2003, and 11 Colombian police officers.
The FARC commander in charge of the hostages believed he was following orders from his superiors when he gave custody to fellow "FARC" comrades. The hostages were loaded into two helicopters and flown off to freedom. The commander was captured.
Very nice job, congratulations. Why is it we suspect this was an inside job? Because despite its very best efforts neither the US nor Colombia has been able to identify the location of Ms. Betancourt and the Americans. It's simpler to believe that since FARC's leadership is collapsing, someone decided it was time to come in from the heat and so the deal was set.
Even if our speculation is correct, this was a highly successful covert operation which in thrillers seems easy to conduct, but in life is heckishly difficult.
CNN quotes the hostages as saying not a single shot was fired and their jailors - and they - did not suspect in the slightest what was going on.
US JCS Chairman Says a 3rd Front Not Needed Responding to stories that Israel may attack Iran on its own, the US JCS Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen says he does not need a 3rd front (Iraq and Afghanistan being the other two) in this unstable region.
Mr. Bush reiterated that while all options re. Iran are on the table, the military option does not have first priority.
Letter On Chevron and Iraq From James Wright. Chevron had to be included in the no-bid Iraq oil awards because it holds Iraq oil field records going back to the 1920s. The five companies who were chosen will - assuming the deal closes - indeed provide services so Iraq can revitalize its six oldest, and failing, fields. Among the technical expertise included will be advice on purchase, installation, and operation of oil well monitoring equipment, which is vital and not in place at most points in the fields.
Letter On Pashtuns (from Pakistan, name withheld by request) The letter July 1, 2008 "From a Pakistan Viewpoint" was factually incorrect in some respects.
No real Pashtun was ever army chief in Pakistan. They were racially Pashtuns but transformed by settlement. Ayub Khan was a Hindko (a dialect of Punjabi speaker), so was Kakar (a despised Hindko) .The last ambassador Durrani was also a despised Hindko.
The government in Afghanistan is neither Northern nor Southern. It is a bunch of collaborators both Pashtuns and non Pashtuns. That distinction disappeared after 2004 once Marshal Fahim and Ganooni were removed.
It's incorrect to say the Taliban/Pakistan ISI left the northern 10% of Afghanistan alone. They tried their best to defeat the Northern Alliance but could not succeed because of massive US, Iranian, Indian and Russian help.

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