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Ravi Rikhye  

 

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    Condensed World Armies  Condensed World Paramilitary Forces 2006

    Analysis

    WE BRING YOU THE WORLD ©

    Published on an ad hoc basis

     

     Declassified Gulf II Planning Documents

    Report on US Army readiness March 2007 [Thanks Joseph Stefula]

     

    Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.


    0230 GMT August 20, 2008

     

    • Russia Preparing To Recognize Abkhaz, S. Ossetia Independence says Times London. The Duma has been recalled for next Monday to consider a request by Abhkazia for recognition; the South Ossetia rebel leader says he will follow.

    • Russia has signed 14 UN resolutions/agreements recognizing these territories as and integral part of Georgia, so accepting their independence will be a major change. It will permit the Russians to kick out the UN, NATO/EU observers, Georgian forces permitted by treaty and so on, and to increase their own troops deployments if the latter is what they want.

    • Russia suspends All Cooperation With NATO A Soviet official is supposed to have phoned the Norwegian Embassy in Moscow and told them about this development, which is not confirmed. Trying to guess what the Bear is up to is seldom a productive activity, but this could be a trial balloon to gauge the west's reaction. For example, if the west starts groveling then Russia knows it has leverage. If the west says "OK, TaTa", the Russians know they do not have leverage.

    • Russia says it has cancelled an exercise with a US warship; the US said earlier it was canceling the participation of the Russian Navy.

    • Russia Drops S. Ossetia Civilian Toll to 133, from the 2000 it has been yelling and screaming about as it claimed genocide. So what's behind this change? Our guess - and this is pure speculation -is that unless Russia bars all foreigners from South Ossetia, its fairly easy to get accurate casualty counts. The entire province has/had 70,000 persons. A second reason might be that by giving a count that may actually be somewhat under the real figure, Russia hopes that foreigners will have no incentive to disprove the Russian figure and will not bother mucking around in Georgia where the foreigners will find some serious ethnic cleansing going on.

    • Syrian Pigeon Coos Softly In The Bear's Ear President Assad Junior is in Moscow to buy weapons and to offer Russia basing rights for SS-26 short-range ballistic missiles. No word on if Russia is interested in the basing rights, but surely Russia will be interested in Syria's offer to permit basing rights at Tartus. This would give the Russians their first base in the Mediterranean since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    • The Russian President did call the Israeli Prime Minister to say he valued Russian-Israeli ties.

    • Peculiar Story On US 767 Sale To Israel Jerusalem Post says US sources say US has refused to sell Boeing 767s to Israel because it doesn't want to be accused of providing air refuellers  that could be used to strike Iran.

    • JPost finds the report odd because it cant get the military to confirm, and notes that Israel Aircraft Industries has just been awarded a $22-million contract to convert more B-707s to tankers to add to the IAF's small number of existing B-707 tankers. We will not speculate on numbers till we have a better idea of how the deal is structured. For example, are new engines involved and are the engines to be supplied by the IAF? The tankers will be in service by 2009.

    • Also, we're unclear why Israel would want 767 tankers from the US. Buying cargo 767s for El Al and then providing kits for emergency conversion to tankers would make more sense than to tie up - say - 4 expensive new 767s.

     

    0230 GMT August 19, 2008

     

    • Afghanistan Fighters loyal to the outlaw warlord Gulbaddin Hekmatyar, possibly the most wanted man in Afghanistan, ambushed a newly arrived French paratroop patrol 30 km from Afghanistan, killing 10 paras and wounding about two dozen. Thirteen enemy bodies were recovered, more are certain to have died. President Sarkozy, to give him credit, reiterated that France will not be driven from Afghanistan by casualties.

    • Taliban fighters made a "complex attack" on the big US base at Khost. Perhaps 20 were killed, it would appear mainly by Afghan special forces who caught the Taliban some kilometers from the base. Ten suicide bombers were among the Taliban killed. No allied dead reported.

    • We are going Austin Power on the "complex attack" because - goodness gracious - the Taliban attacked at night under the cover of a rocket barrage, and the suiciders were supposed to breach the base's walls and Taliban fighters were supposed to have entered. Okay, we concede this exceptionally simple-minded attack is "complex" as far as the Taliban go because their officers and leaders seem to suffer from RIQS - Reduced IQ Syndrome and for years have been doing the stupidest things. But lets face it, folks. This was not a complex attack.

    • The reason we say that is the suicide bombers. You do not use idiots wanting to die as their foremost objective as sappers. You use your best men, very carefully trained, and their object is to breach walls, not to die. If some die in the process, well, that's war, but if you are going to attack with the object of attaining martyrdom, you are likely to get your wish without creating much of a military impact. Ask the ghosts of the 600,000 Iranians that died in 1980-88: several hundred thousands were the then equivalent of suicide troops. Iran did push Iraq out of its territory, but the Iranians lost 3 men/boys to each Iraqi.

    • It speaks very badly for the manner in which this attack was conducted that the main column was itself ambushed and wiped out.

    • Anyhows, in large part our comments are irrelevant because the Taliban don't mind taking casualties and they are killing larger and larger numbers of foreign troops. So far, of course, this hasn't bothered the foreigners, because the overall numbers are tiny.

    • NATO/US are busy blaming Pakistan for this resurgence of Taliban activity, supposed to be at the highest level since 2001. We'd prefer if NATO/US would stop whining and shift the blame where it belongs, namely on themselves. It is actually not Pakistan's job to commit hara kiri by stopping the Taliban, who are for all practical purposes, Pakistan forces fighting to enhance Pakistan's security. It is for NATO/US to seal the border themselves, and the alliance has let so much time pass that the job is going to be 10 times harder than it might have been even just two years ago. So, NATO/US, good luck with all that. But can you please stop whining. Its getting tiresome.

    • Comedy Central: Georgia NATO has apparently discovered - and is shocked, shocked - that the Russian definition of "withdrawal" from Georgia is different from the French definition. Paris took the lead in encouraging a ceasefire and a withdrawal of Russian forces to pre-war positions. As far as the Russians are concerned, they are withdrawing. But then what about all this blowing up of equipment at Georgian military bases, the patrols that seem to just sort of creep forward deeper into Georgia, and most charming, the Russian SS-21 SSM batteries that are digging in well inside Georgia?

    • See, folks, the Russians said very clearly from the start they were going to do what they thought neccessary to protect Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and they made is quite clear they were going to create an exclusion zone that basically covered the northern half of Georgia. They also said they were not going to allow Georgian troops inside the two breakaway areas in any form or shape.

    • So how can anyone accuse the Russians of perfidy, as people are now doing, and how can anyone say Russian intentions are unclear? What does NATO want by way of clarification? Do they want the Russians to produce a kindergarten primer with simple explanations such as G(eorgia) is for Province-Of-Russia, and P(eace) is for No-Army-For-Georgia, and S(ecurity) is for The-Only-Good-Georgian-Is-A-Dead-Georgian?

    • The Russians have said what they are going to do a hundred times in a dozen different ways. If NATO is not getting it, maybe NATO needs to go back to elementary school and learn to read and listen.

    • Back At The Ranch Readers may recall our saying - and the media saying many times - that the situation in the north of Iraq is very tense because there are multiple claimants for Kirkuk, which sits in the middle of the northern oil fields. The Kurds say it is theirs and that Saddam's ethnic cleansing of the Kurds and resettlement by Arabs has to be undone. The Arabs say where are we now supposed to go, we've been living here for a generation. The Turkeman, backed by Turkey which threatens to invade to support its ethnic brothers, say they have been in Kirkuk a few centuries and it's theirs. Etc etc.

    • The issue was supposed to have been settled by a referendum, and - understandably - the referendum keeps getting delayed because there seems no peaceful resolution.

    • We'd mentioned that the Kurds have been ethnically cleansing the region of Arabs - albeit in a more humane way that most such cleansing takes place. They have been giving Arabs settlers money and safe passage out of the region, in other words a deal the Arabs cannot refuse.

    • Now we learn from the International Herald Tribune that Kurdish security forces, police, and intelligence control Kirkuk. The Kurdish forces have cooperated fully with the Americans and have fought AQI as well as Sunni terrorists/militias in the north on behalf of the Americans. But there are at least two, maybe three, Iraq Army divisions composed mainly of Kurdish troops who have been formed, trained, equipped etc by the Americans. In a showdown, no need to guess which side the Kurdish divisions are going to back. Hint: we wouldn't put our money on Baghdad.

     

    0230 GMT August 18, 2008

     

    • Russia Withdrawing From Georgia/Russia Not Withdrawing From Georgia This headline summarizes the complete situation, so we do not need to amplify.

    • Meanwhile, Russia's president has blasted Georgian "morons" and says they will not go "unpunished".

    • Also meanwhile, ethnic cleansing by South Ossetia militia and Russian forces continues; naturally, this is of no consequence. If the world has no stomach to stand up to Russia invading a sovereign member of the UN, the world certainly has no stomach to stand up to Russia on its own ethnic cleansing.  There are ideals, and there are realities. When it comes to their ideals about what their own governments do, westerners are never short of outrage. When it comes to their ideals being violated by a snarling, fanged bear in a fighting mood, the good people of the west turn a Nelsonian eye. No point even saying the good people of the west are wimps and cowards. Just as there is no point saying the sun rises and sets each day.

    • Hilarious article by the French president - who we genuinely like and admire for his personal life - in the Washington Post. All about how he is courageously standing up to Russia. Sarko, old buddy old pal, give it up. We know its that delicious Bordeaux Red talking. Instead of talking, why don't you dispatch a French battalion to Tbilisi? It's right next door, practically.

    • No? Not a good idea? Let's have another glass of the divine Red and listen to another sad love song, and stick an unlit Gauloise between our lips (can't light it, not politically correct), adjust our berets, and leer at the beautiful legs of that stunning raven-haired Parisian walking past our cafe.

    • More Bad News For Green Haters The State of Colorado mandated some years ago that in 10 years or whatever, 10% of its energy had to come from renewables. The conventional energy lobby - which is very strong in Colorado because of the state's natural gas resources - fought the mandate tooth-and-nail. Then of a sudden it changed its mind and jumped into renewables with all four paws. Result? State has achieved its target 8 years early, and the conventional energy generators (who are now also renewable energy generators) have agreed to up the ante and go for a 20% target.

    • In fact, the leading energy producer has filed its intent to shut down two coal-fired plants without replacement.

    • All we can say is, Orbat.com is second-to-none in hating Greens, but you have to admire what the conventional lot have achieved, green-wise. Yes, yes, we know Colorado is different because its people dont mind paying for green power, lots of tax breaks (BTW the conventional energy people also get a lot of breaks), and Colorado has no heavy industry to speak of, there's still the base-load problem etc etc. But the Coloradans have acted instead of moaning and whining, and they are showing the way.

    • Pakistan President Resigns and local media says he will leave for another country. It's beside the point now to mention that the fall of this dictator came about because he wasn't even a pretend dictator. He was far too soft to even be a regular politician, leave alone a dictator.

    • US Arctic Superiority In Danger/US Asleep at The Switch As Usual Nowdays We need to get back to work, but you can read all about it here.

     

    0230 GMT August 17, 2008

    So, What's Happening In The Rest Of The World?

    Very Little Apparently

     

    • Isn't It So Considerate Of The News That It Understands journalists need a weekend break like anyone else and thoughtfully decides not to happen on a Sunday, and if at all possible, not on a Saturday too?

    • Olympics with the Chinese lead increasing to 37 golds to US's 19, the US media has begun facing up to the likelihood America is not going to come first. And of course that 19 includes 8 golds by one person, Mark Phelps the swimming legend-in-his-lifetime.

    • We learn from the UK Telegraph that in 1996 UK sank to a single gold medal, but just 12 years later is at 11 with the possibility of five more. The secret? Not much of a secret, apparently. UK decided to divert money from National Lottery winnings to sports training.

    • Gori, Georgia The Russians say they will start leaving Georgia today, but seem to be creating a situation in which we can endlessly debate what "leave" means. They appear to be strengthening their positions in Gori, have completely banned the Georgian government, police, city administration to enter, and have replaced the TV and radio station with their own, apparently tuned only to Russia. Meanwhile, they keep their checkposts on the main west-east highway, including one just 30-km from Tbilisi.

    • By the way, we are quite annoyed with the media for continuing to identify anything with tracks as a Russian tank, and particularly IFVs and SP artillery. Is there no qualification at all required to be a reporter?

    • Asia Times discusses Israel-Georgia military cooperation.

    • Germany To Georgia: You Can Join NATO Much to our surprise, Chief of the Super Wimps, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, which has been the leader in thwarting the US effort to get Georgia into NATO, has visited the Georgia capital and says Georgia can join NATO if it wishes to do so.

    • Now, assuming that this is not more political hot air, and that assuming that when Georgia says "we've been trying to join, of course we want" the Wimp Brigade doesn't come up with 999 more things Georgia has to do before it is permitted to join, this is a huge change in Germany's position.

    • We'd figured Georgia's bid to join NATO was pretty much toast after the recent war, but apparently the West has been shocked out of its senility, at least for now. This could be a major setback for Russia's policy of intimidation as a way of keeping people out of NATO.

    • But before people start partying, its best to remember that the Russians are a very tough bunch of patriots. Its likely that Georgia joining will only harden their positions and increase their belligerence. The Russians have a lot to lose if they quietly accept Georgia-in-NATO.

    • And its always best to remember that if the West got serious on energy independence from Russia today, it will still take ten years to the point they can tell Russia where it can get off. And since the Russians will also have ready markets for the hydrocarbon resources, they will still keep getting vast sums of money each year. They may just decide they dont have to compromise with anyone.

     

    0230 GMT August 17, 2008

     

    So, What's Happening In The Rest Of The World?

     

    • In Beijing, America's Sorry Backside Is Being Whipped by the Chinese sports machine. Subtracting Mark Phelps' 7 golds, US is running 3-to-1 behind China. Of course, the Chinese have the home field advantage, but more to the point, they care about winning enough to do everything to win. In America we have such a high opinion of ourselves as the best in everything that we have spent the last four years lollygagging, even though the rise of China and the threat to American supremacy has been known for at least the last 12 years.

    • True, the track and filed events where America picks up a huge haul have just begun. At the same time, lagging China by 11 golds (16 to 27 counting Mr. Phelps) is not a good thing. The next step is to  claim that really, these medal measures are so pointless, and that we come second shows only the superiority of our way of life and that the Chinese come first shows only how anti-freedom and anti-individualistic they are.

    • The editor needs to explain something to the proponents of the "it doesn't matter" school. National power includes many components, and Olympic golds are a key measure. If America does not come out on top, the rest of the world is going to take it as one more sign of America's decline.

    • From Ukraine, An Offer To Use Its Early Warning Radars Right off, this development has not come about because of the Georgia war, but it has become significant because of the Georgia war. Ukraine has two large early warning radars for missile and air defense. The Russians abrogated their treaty requiring Ukraine to work with the Russians, so Ukraine says it is free to offer them to anyone.

    • It says its security can be guaranteed only through collective means - meaning, but NATO, and its offer is a sign of good faith.

    • Two problems. First, given how the West went totally wobbly over Georgia, what's the guarantee it is now willing to extend its protection to Ukraine? Second, it is always a very, very bad idea to rely on someone else for your defense.

    • Ukraine is not a small country. It has 46-million people, and using the modest figure of 5% of the population, it could put 2.5-million regulars and reservists into the field to defend itself. That many troops is more than just a speed bump in case of attack from the East. Naturally this means money, especially since Ukraine will have to in the next 10 years bring 15 divisions to snuff, and then another 15 divisions depending on what the Russians will do. Equally, Ukraine will need dense air defenses. This means gigabucks.

    • But then no one said that the defense of liberty comes cheap.

    • In Zimbabwe, No Progress On Political Deadlock we deliberately have not covered the ongoing talks between the opposition and Mr. Mugabe, because the situation changes every day. It now looks that Mr. Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, is willing to settle for prime ministership while real power remains with Mr. Mugabe, and for years rather than the months that was his earlier demand.

    • Let us see how things work out.

     

    0230 GMT August 16, 2008

     

    • Sri Lanka Army Advances on rebel de facto capital in the north, Killinochchi. The Army has entered the Vanni area, where the rebel capital is located.

    • The Army claims 5600 rebels killed this year in a series of non-stop offensives. The figure can be disputed, but not that the rebels are steadily losing ground. This does not mean they have lost the war, only that they will soon be defeated and will have to go back to Phase III of guerilla war, where the insurgents don't hold ground, but build up strength so they can start taking over urban areas. Conversely, its probably reasonable to expect that the rebels will be in great difficulty, having lost near 20 years of gains.

    • Saudi Intel Chief In Pakistan says Jang of Pakistan. He brought a message offering President Musharraf safe passage should the latter decided to resign. The President seems to be on his way out, with the civilian government working to impeach him. Sources say he would rather resign than be impeached.

    • US pushed to have President Musharraf give up power in favor of a democratic government. The US got what it wished for. Orbat.com and about a hundred people warned the US Government that while Musharraf was not the ideal person to fight America's war on terror in the region - no Pakistan leader can do that - his civilian successors would be far less able to combat the insurgents. All this has to come to pass even faster than Orbat.com expected. Now US moans and sighs about the Good Old Days when Mush was in power.

    • That's the Americans for you - nothing keeps them happy.

    • While India and America Were Dreamily Waltzing Away a Maoist government has taken power in Nepal. Its ministers will head 9 portfolios, including security and foreign affairs. A major left ally gets 7 portfolios. And yet another left party gets 4.

    • So, people, we need to be told once again how communism has failed even as welcome the world's newest communist regime. These are not your average Red, by the way. They are Maoists if the peasant agrarian revolution sort. Cant get much redder than this lot.

    • Russia Threatens Poland with N-Attack In Case Of War With West Now, people, a quick lesson in what's important post-Georgia. Russia yesterday made a very blatant, very open threat against Poland for having accepted siteing of a US Army ABM battery on its territory, just 24 hours after the US-Poland agreement was signed.

    • Don't take our word for it: here's the direct quote from the International Herald Tribune of what the Russian deputy defense chief, a 3-star general said:

    • General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that any new US assets in Europe could come under Russian nuclear attack with his forces targeting "the allies of countries having nuclear weapons". And: He told Russia's Interfax news agency: "By hosting these, Poland is making itself a target. This is 100 per cent certain. It becomes a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority."

    • So why do we put this last in our update? Because - to use an American phrase, we have a completely new situation in Europe and the world had better "get used to it." Fairly soon we will all be yawning each time the Russians threaten another country and work to undermine its government, including open invasion

    • The US has agreed to give Poland advanced Patriot to boost that's country's air defense against Soviet air and missile threats. This is not a consequence of Georgia: the agreement was worked out a while ago. We assume US technicians, advisors, and perhaps even artillerymen, will come with the Patriots.

    • Meanwhile Back At The Ranch US delivered its sternest message to Russia by sending Ms. Condolezza Rice to Tbilisi. While MS. Rice was in the Georgia capital, the Russians send a reconnaissance company to within 50-km of Tbilisi - the closest they have come to the capital.

    • Oh yes, the Russians are frightened of the US. Very frightened. Not.

    • Frankly, we are delighted. US has been so bloated with righteousness and arrogance for the last ten years that speaking purely within the editor's American persona, he is thrilled Washington has been given several tight slaps by the Russians. Since when did Washington think all it had to do is pass gas and the world would fall in line? America is going to have to get back to the only way national security is assured: by talking little, and working very hard to build your defenses. This is the way America was for the 50 years between 1940 and 1990. It will be good to get back to traditional American values. PS Washington: get the hint? Stop talking and talking and talking. Start doing.

     

     

    0230 GMT August 15, 2008

     

    • Russian Deputy Chief of Staff on Russian Troops In Poti "We are no longer fighting, believe me ... We have a different problem now. Poti is one of those, and the geography is probably going to change. We switched into the capacity of peacekeepers."

    • "As far as Poti and other places are concerned, let's agree with you that if it (the place) is inside the peacekeeping zone of responsibility, then it is legitimate for intelligence, information and special groups to be there."

    • "We can't sit and do nothing, we need to proceed with intelligence operations and react adequately. This is our task, including during a time of peace."

    • In other words Russia is not going to withdraw from Poti. The port city will not be under Georgian control. if you look at the Georgia map you will see Poti is halfway down the Georgia coast. If this can be returned to Georgian control, neither can the northern half of the country because the north includes just about most Georgia military bases.

    • Therefore: quod erat demonstrandum, or QED, a term generations of long-suffering geometry students are all-too-familiar with, including the editor, who teaches geometry and is also, from time to time, a geometry student. The Latin term means "that which was to be demonstrated, has been demonstrated". The editor's first geometry teacher, back in school, half a century or more ago, used to say: "QED: Quite Easily Done". This is a math nerd joke, if you don't find it funny, not to worry. You are normal.

    • All readers need to be aware the Russian commander's statement was not issued a while ago. It was issued yesterday, AFTER the most dire warnings from the US about damage to long-term relations with Russia etc etc etc. In other words, the Russians are telling the Americans and everyone else: "Please remove yourself and go do something unpleasant to you in the privacy of your own home."

    • So again - as we have been warning our readers - don't bother parsing Russian statements. There is no profit in it. They plan to occupy the north half of Georgia, one way or the other, and they plan to ensure that south Georgia joins north Georgia. This really is goodbye Georgia, and we suggest we all stop wasting our time on this matter.

    • Meanwhile, Georgia and Oil Politics The oil angle is definitely important to Russia, but please, don't underestimate the Russians. The invasion of Georgia is NOT about oil. It is about getting the west to stop encircling and squeezing Russia. The Russians would have invaded Georgia even if oil was not a concern.

    • That said, Georgia is vital in the Battle of the Hydrocarbon Pipelines. Put simply, central Asia has huge reserves of natural gas and considerable quantities of oil. The Russians want these to travel through pipelines Russia controls. The west does not. So the west built an oil and a natural gas pipeline through Georgia. The Bear is not happy.

    • Look at this nice map from Wikipedia and the issues will become crystal clear. Central Asia's hydrocarbon is only now being seriously exploited: there will be a lot more pipelines and expansions in the next 20-30 years.

    • Russia wants to control the Central Asia hydrocarbon routes not just because it wants power over the west - western Europe already depends on Russia for one-quarter of its energy - but also because if an exporting country has no choice but to ship through Russia, the Russians charge a whacking great transit fee.

    • So you see, it isn't just America that's been living in Peter Pan Land on energy. The Euros too have. The difference is that the Euros have made and are making gigantic efforts to get away from oil dependency while the US has been going "a tra, and a la, and a hey ho".

    • The reality is the west needs to launch a crash N-power program, yesterday. We are not talking of a few gigawatts of N-reactors. We are talking a terrawatt for west Europe and a half terrawatt for the US (US not only has a lot of its own oil, but Canada is a reliable supplier, so US needs to replace only half of its oil.) So we're looking at 1500 one-gigawatt reactors in a space of 20 years, plus crash programs for solar, wind, conservation and so on.

    • There is no further time to indulge ourselves in so-called green debate. N-reactors are in any case a lot less environmental damaging than coal and oil.

    • The west has three choices. (a) Become energy independent of not just the Middle East but also of Russia. (b) Reduce energy  consumption by 50% in the next 20 years, which means falling standards of living. (c) Continue as now, and get to ready to smoochie poo the Bear's very large backside; also to learn the proper prostration procedure for the Arabs. So far the west is just learning to kiss Arab backsides. Fairly soon we'll have to be waiting there, ready to wipe Arab backsides with toilet paper - and begging for the honor. And also fighting India and China for the honor.

    • The editor cannot speak for the rest of America and the Europeans. But his grandmothers sure did not raise him to wipe anyone's backsides, and he sure didn't bring up his children to expect to pay anyone to be allowed to wipe their backsides.

    • Its up to y'all mates. The editor will have no problem living on 50% of the energy he now uses. That's one of the many advantages of spending 20 years in India. But will you be able to take that cut in your standard of living?

    • Signs of Hope A US utility plans to build Calvert Cliffs 3, in Maryland, not all that far from where the editor lives. If approved - and if the company goes through with the project - at some point 10 years from now the first US commercial reactor in 40 years will become operational.

    • So are the good people of Calvert Cliffs freaking out? Are the demonstrating with slogans of: "Give me Green Energy or Give me Death?" and "You'll build that reactor when you pry that solar cell from my cold dead hands?"

    • Not a bit. They are cheering. They say they've lived with two reactors for decades. They say America needs reliable energy. They're saying "Build the Reactor".

    • Even the greens, who will present the usual challenge after challenge to the reactor, admit there is no local support to stop the reactor.

     

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